The answers to these questions lead to refined production, greater use of intelligence by decision makers, and further feedback sessions. The problem of incremental analysis—especially as it applies to the current intelligence process—was also at work in the period preceding hostilities. People who possess what Sternberg calls successful intelligence possess the ability to do the following: It is important to note that intelligence is highly dependent upon cultural context. For the U.S. doctrine, the aircraft was too inflexible for American fighter tactics, but made sense for the Soviets as an interceptor that could make one pass at a penetrating bomber, using an extremely powerful radar to burn through jamming for final targeting. To go back to linchpin analysis, the boundary conditions give places to challenge and test, reducing ambiguity. Tradecraft standards can be used to iron out differences among experts who have complementary substantive specialties. This withholding of information is known as counterintelligence, and is very different from similar fields of research, such as science and history where information may be misleading, incomplete or wrong, but rarely does the subject of investigation actively deny the researcher access. An analyst might notice that when Country X's command post with call sign ABC sent out a message on frequency 1 between Thursday and Saturday, an air unit will move to a training range within one week. Wikipedia. Chapter 2. Try refreshing the page, or contact customer support. Processing information involves three basic components: Metacomponents are the executive processes that control, monitor, and evaluate your cognitive processes. L'intelligence est l'ensemble des processus retrouvés dans des systèmes, plus ou moins complexes, vivants ou non, qui permettent de comprendre, d'apprendre ou de s'adapter à des situations nouvelles. Just as analysts need to try to understand the thinking of the adversary, analysts need to know the thinking of their customers and allies. 3. qui utilise l'analyse, par exemple, la séparation d'un tout en ses constituants et ses principes de base (ex. Heuer's answer was making the challenge of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) the core of analysis. in a rather similar way. Once a semester I use Study.com to prepare for all my finals. Therefore, careful analysts should recognize the key role that their own and their organization's identity and culture play in accepting or rejecting hypotheses at each step in their analysis.[26]. Heuer observed that good deception looks real. [7] The academic disciplines examining the art and science of intelligence analysis are most routinely referred to as "Intelligence Studies", and exemplified by institutions such as the Joint Military Intelligence College, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (Security and Intelligence Studies major), and Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies. Plus précisément, les aptitudes peuvent être considérées comme des caractéristiques élémentaires supposées fondamentales, voire primaires. The external consumer needs to know more of potential actions. In mathematics and physics, a similar problem formation, which constrains the solution by certain known or impossible conditions, is the boundary value condition. Définition de intelligence analytique dans le dictionnaire français en ligne. The Enigma, with German military enhancements, was quite powerful for a mechanical encryption device, and it might not have been broken as easily had the Germans been more careful about operating procedures. Others may meditate, or even seek insight in dreams, hoping for an insight such as that given to August Kekulé in a daydream that resolved one of the fundamental structural problems of organic chemistry. Other scientists may be able to set up direct experiments, as in chemistry or biology. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value. But never water down your assessment to a lowest common denominator just to obtain coordination. Conversely, if there are elements that would be utterly opposed to the objectives of one's side, ways of neutralizing those elements need to be explored. The body of specific methods for intelligence analysis is generally referred to as analytic tradecraft. {{courseNav.course.mDynamicIntFields.lessonCount}} lessons They analyze problems and decide how to respond. Above all, the analyst must avoid the special cognitive traps for intelligence analysis projecting what she or he wants the opponent to think, and using available information to justify that conclusion. Given the immense volumes of information that modern collection systems produce, the mind is the limiting factor. Wikipedia. Purple was actually mechanically simpler than Enigma, but the U.S. Army team struggled with a mechanical reproduction until Leo Rosen had the unexplained insight that the critical building block in the Purple machine was a telephone-type stepping switch rather than the rotor used in Enigma and in more advanced U.S. and UK machines. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Also, cables from overseas for preparing agendas for meetings and sending and receiving messages from my counterparts in foreign governments. "Coordination with peers is necessary...If you think you are right, and the coordinator disagrees, let the assessment reflect that difference of opinion and use a footnote, called a reclama,[27] inside the U.S. intelligence community if necessary. At the same time, Watanabe[9] observes, "It is better to be mistaken than wrong". Intelligence consumers express great frustration with generic papers that waste their time by giving them context they already have internalized. Report conclusions. Sens du mot. Consider the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong, misleading, or subject to a different interpretation. I recall a colleague who forwarded an analysis that called into question the wisdom behind several new US weapon systems. Analysts should understand the relationship between the analyst's and the consumer's organization. Serendipity plays a role here, because the collected and analyzed information may meet any or all of these criteria. "When I was working at State on European affairs, for example, on certain issues I was the Secretary of State. Artificial general intelligence examples remain out of reach. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and often deliberately distorted. Experienced analysts recommend seeing oneself as a specialist on a team, with 5–10 key players. Blackwill explained how he used his time efficiently, which rarely involved reading general CIA reports. You are the one who reads the traffic every day and who studies the issue. Translate texts with the world's best machine translation technology, developed by the creators of Linguee. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis. All rights reserved. Analytical intelligence, also called componential intelligence, includes your ability to successfully complete academic tasks, solve analogies, and process information. So, the analyst must evaluate incoming information for reliability (has the source reported accurate information in the past? They must raise awkward facts and ask probing questions, even if this makes the decision-maker's job harder. The best use of information, in this context, is to challenge the assumption the analyst likes best. Maybe you're good solving analogies, such as 'Nurse is to Doctor as X (missing link) is to Executive'? The possibility of deception should not be rejected until it is disproved or, at least, until a systematic search for evidence has been made and none has been found. Les différences individuelles directement observées dans une épreuve sont en général attribuées à des caractéristiques sous-jacentes, qui elles, ne sont pas directement observables. HUMINT revealed that a single Mach 3.2 flight of the MiG wrecked the engines beyond hope of repair, and the cost of replacement was prohibitive. The following discussion is a paraphrase of the RAND report Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis (Chapter 2, pages 3-12).The intelligence cycle can be contrasted with the intelligence analytic cycle which, according to the RAND report, typically includes three forms of analysis:. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them. Intelligence analysis is a way of reducing the ambiguity of highly ambiguous situations. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected. Identify the main uncertain factors or key variables judged likely to drive the outcome of the issue, forcing systematic attention to the range of and relationships among factors at play. Our tradecraft enables analysts to provide "value-added" to consumers of intelligence by ensuring: Analytic tradecraft skills also serve as "force multipliers", helping us provide top-quality analysis: Stating the objective from the consumer's standpoint is an excellent starting point for goal-setting: Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill ... seized the attention of the class of some 30 [intelligence community managers] by asserting that as a policy official he never read ... analytic papers. and career path that can help you find the school that's right for you. My job description called for me to help prepare the President for making policy decisions, including at meetings with foreign counterparts and other officials...Do you think that after I have spent long weeks shaping the agenda, I have to be told a day or two before the German foreign minister visits Washington why he is coming?". The techniques and information that is taught in schools consists primarily of analytical intelligence. Collaboration tools. Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. The qualitative approach is more interpretive -- it focuses on understanding the content of non-numerical data like text, images, audio and video, including common phrases, themes and points of view. The analytic process must be interactive with the customer to succeed. Intelligence analysis is also extremely high context. An analysis should have a summary of the key characteristics of the topic, followed by the key variables and choices. A chronology of events based on observations by US officers, A chronology based on reports from a liaison intelligence service. Web analytics is the measurement, collection, analysis, and reporting of web data to understand and optimize web usage. While induction, for human beings, is usually not at a fully rational level, do not discount the potential role of software that uses statistical or logical techniques for finding patterns. Some may argue that each analytic assessment should be judged on its content and not on the certification or reputation of the author. The goal of the Analytic Tradecraft Notes of the Central Intelligence Agency's Directorate of Intelligence (DI) include the. Today, there is danger of becoming too entranced with the presentation and less with its subject. définition de la personnalité d'un individu par l' étude de sa façon de manier son clavier et sa souris ou les touches de son téléphone portable Has the source lied in the past? Deduction can be used to validate a hypothesis by working from premises to conclusion.[5]. How do they prefer to have it presented? and scored 1595 points on the SAT, a well above-average score. To make the best use of opportunity analysis, there needs to be a set of objectives for one's own country, preferably with some flexibility to them. According to Sternberg, intelligence is not defined by how well you perform on intelligence tests like the Stanford-Binet scales. 5 supply chain management tips for 2021. technical processing as a form of analysis Whether the subject is political behavior or weapons capabilities, the analysts and consumers share a great deal of context. + [context] → [interpretation]. Another kind of causality could come from interviews, in which soldiers might describe the things that warn them of an impending attack, or how the ground might look when an improvised explosive device has been emplaced. voir la définition de Wikipedia. Les entreprises recourent à un logiciel d'analytique pour bénéficier d'une visibilité sur la quantité, la nature et le mode d'utilisation d'un contenu créé. 1. qui procède par analyse, examine les éléments constitutifs d'un tout. Not willing to be wrong is also a disease of the highest policymaker levels, and why there needs to be a delicately balanced relationship, built of trust, between a policymaker and his closest intelligence advisors. Look up words and phrases in comprehensive, reliable bilingual dictionaries and search through billions of online translations. Even when the intelligence subject at hand is a technical one, analysts must remain aware that the other side may be presenting deliberately deceptive information. Blog Press Information. At his confirmation hearing for CIA Director, Gen. Michael V. Hayden said he believes that intelligence analysis should be done by "induction", under which "all the data" are gathered and general conclusions determined, rather than by "deduction", under which you have a conclusion and seek out the data that support it. Although anyone can claim the title of “intelligence analyst,” there are currently few commonly understood, standardized certifications available to confirm analytic skill and proficiency. Emphasize procedures that expose and elaborate alternative points of view—analytic debates, devil's advocates, interdisciplinary brainstorming, competitive analysis, intra-office peer review of production, and elicitation of outside expertise. The former involves analysis of numerical data with quantifiable variables that can be compared or measured statistically. Many translated example sentences containing "intelligence analytics" – French-English dictionary and search engine for French translations.
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